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AAPS 85th Annual Meeting
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Predicting the Impact of Future Technology on the Practice of Surgery
Robert Mullen, Ph. D., Randal Rudderman, M.D..
Case Western Reserve, Cleveland, OH, USA.

PURPOSE: The practice of Medicine and Surgery has continued to evolve in response to changes in demographics of professionals and customers, globalization and competing markets. Managing these evolutional changes to insure the health of the profession is one of the goals of every professional society. An often-overlooked driver of change in practice is the evolution of technology. This factor is overlooked because it has been assumed to be unpredictable. The purpose of this presentation is to examine the impact of innovations on professional practice.
METHODS: Multiple disparate fields of technology are evaluated using diffusion models to predict their rate of innovation. A diffusion model is used in this study to evaluate historical mandible treatment data, and to extrapolate probable rates of future innovation.
RESULTS:The diffusion model is successful in predicting rates of technological innovation in multiple disparate fields. The diffusion model is also successful in predicting historic outcomes of mandible fracture treatment.
CONCLUSION: Technological evolution can be predicted. The advantages and consequences afforded to practitioners with awareness of the models of innovation are discussed.

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